Ukraine hit record number of Putin’s refineries, as Trump pleads for energy ceasefire (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,664)

Donald Trump surprised observers by saying that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to a ceasefire in attacks on energy infrastructure.

This is not true, as Ukraine confirmed with a fresh attack on a refinery in Russia’s Syzran, and Russia with an attack on a filling station in Kyiv.

Zelensky said Ukraine would welcome a ceasefire, but Russia appears to be opposed.

In total, Ukraine struck Russian refineries 23 times in August.

Trump is trying to create the impression that Ukrainian attacks are responsible for high diesel prices in the US, but in reality his war in Iran has had a greater impact.

Maps of the day: Ukrainians acknowledged for the first time the liberation of villages north of Lyman.

Videos of the day: A Ukrainian attack on a North Korean rocket launcher; a Russian drone hits a road in Pavlohrad; a Russian attack on ships in Odesa.

On Monday, US president Donald Trump once again caught his Ukrainian partners off guard. The US president unexpectedly announced publicly that Ukraine and Russia had agreed not to attack each other’s energy infrastructure.

If this were true, it would be a major development, since attacks on infrastructure have become an important part of the conflict in the fifth year of the war.

However, Ukraine and Russia have not in fact agreed to any such ceasefire. Ukrainian sources confirmed this to Western media. At the same time, Ukrainians struck a refinery in the Russian city of Syzran overnight into Tuesday.

Ukraine continues striking russian refineries, just now another one was hit in Syzran. As usually trump just made shit up about the agreement. pic.twitter.com/fqP0wyi40d

Likewise, the Russians struck two filling stations in Kyiv on Tuesday, killing one person.

Russia hit two gas stations in Kyiv this morning. One dead, eight wounded. This is the kind of “energy ceasefire” you can expect from Russia. pic.twitter.com/bjBdYR2Eir

“Ukraine has proposed that its partners secure an agreement with Russia that would stop the destruction of critical infrastructure,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky wrote .

On the other hand, Zelensky said that “Ukraine is not convinced that Russia is willing to abide by any agreement.”

According to the Financial Times , the possibility of a ceasefire in strikes on critical infrastructure has been discussed for a long time, at least since February. The newspaper wrote that according to its sources, Ukraine has for months been urging Russia to agree to a mutual suspension of attacks on energy facilities, as well as attacks on ports and other critical infrastructure.

However, Russia has so far rejected such a ceasefire. And according to Bloomberg , it does not appear even now that it has agreed to any ceasefire.

People familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking say, however, that Russian president Vladimir Putin is reluctant to conclude an agreement before winter, as he believes that attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure could increase pressure on Kyiv to make concessions, according to the Financial Times .

Who would benefit more: At present, the attacks appear to harm Ukrainians more than Russians. “Every day, Ukrainian energy facilities, port infrastructure, logistics, and even warehouses storing food and pharmaceuticals are targeted,” Zelensky wrote .

However, Ukrainians are not easing their attacks either. This is indicated by an analysis of strikes in August by the Ukrainian account Oko Hora.

According to it, Ukrainians struck 70 targets on the territory of the Russian Federation in August. This is the highest number since the beginning of the war. They included 23 strikes on refineries, some repeatedly, and 23 logistics warehouses.

“For the second consecutive month, we have been breaking records for the number of strikes. In addition to the overall record, we have also set records for the number of strikes on oil refineries, airfields and logistics centres,” the account wrote.

This map shows where Ukrainians struck in August. The abbreviation НПЗ (NPZ) means refinery; yellow marks a location struck twice and black one struck five times.

Some compare the current fighting, in which the war is largely being waged in rear areas through attacks on enemy targets, to the 'War of the Cities'. This was the name given to a period of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when both sides likewise bombed and shelled cities in an effort to force the enemy to retreat.

The independent Russian think tank Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) offered another historical parallel, from an even more distant period. It referred to the medieval term chevauchée, French for a mounted raid. These were destructive raids during the Hundred Years’ War, in the early modern period in which attackers burned villages, destroyed crops and supplies, and killed livestock in order to undermine the enemy’s economy.

“At the same time, they were intended to demonstrate to the population their lord’s inability to provide protection. The current ‘Putin chevauchée’ pursues similar aims: to inflict maximum economic damage on Ukraine, paralyse civilian life, undermine public confidence in the Ukrainian government and increase the cost to Western allies of supporting the country,” CIT analysts wrote .

Why Trump is doing this: The main reason for his announcement is to draw attention to the impact of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries on global fuel prices, especially diesel. It is currently the most expensive it has ever been in the United States.

Ahead of the November congressional elections, Donald Trump is trying to persuade the American public that this is not his fault.

“The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran,” he wrote . Other US officials have repeated this claim.

Before the war, Russia was among the world’s largest diesel exporters. Last year and this year, however, it halted fuel exports abroad in order to ensure sufficient supplies for its domestic market. The ban remains in force until the end of January 2027.

It is true that this may have affected global diesel prices and their rise at filling stations around the world. However, the impact is smaller than that of the US-Israeli war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

This is clearly visible in the chart of diesel prices in the US, the blue line, and in different US regions. Prices did not rise until March, after the attack on Iran. Ukrainians began attacking refineries last year, although it is true that they intensified their campaign in spring and summer.

The price of diesel on US highways, in dollars per gallon. Source: eia.gov

The Kyiv School of Economics Institute, according to the Financial Times , said that the war in Iran has a 2.2-times greater impact on diesel prices than Ukrainian attacks on refineries. Its analysts estimated that between March and August, Persian Gulf countries reduced diesel exports by 152m barrels, while Russia reduced them by 68m barrels.

Trump’s false statement that both sides had agreed to stop the attacks had no impact on global fuel prices.

If we heard it from Ukraine and Russia, it would have a far greater impact than hearing it from Trump, analyst Rachel Ziemba told Bloomberg .

The Ukrainian army has for the first time confirmed the liberation of several villages in northern Donetsk region, north of Lyman. On Tuesday morning, the 3rd Army Corps released a video by its commander, Andriy Biletskyi. He announced that Russian infiltrators had been cleared from the villages of Novoselivka, Oleksandrivka and Yarove, as well as the area around Korovyi Yar. The village of Seredne was liberated from occupation.

In total, they cleared 75 sq km of infiltrators and liberated a further 10 sq km.

ОФІЦІЙНО: Білецький вперше про наступальну операцію «Вівальді», Третій корпус зачистив від інфільтрації Новоселівку, Олександрівку, Ярову, околиці Корового Яру та звільнив Середнє! Підтверджуємо інформацію про наступ української армії на півночі Донецької області. У режимі… pic.twitter.com/nWckVEM34n

This was the first time Ukrainians spoke about the operation they call Vivaldi. We had previously written that Ukrainian activity in this sector had begun as early as May, but had been conducted quietly.