Baltic states seek to calm panic on Russia, in role reversal

On 18 September, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia is planning hybrid strikes with drones or rockets on European countries that support Ukraine, such as Poland.

Two days later, Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka told the Guardian that, as well as increased drone activity, a small-scale invasion of Nato territory bordering Russia could be part of the Kremlin’s plans.

Then, last Thursday, Denmark’s defence intelligence service said that Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid war against the West in the coming months, with more frequent attacks against Nato countries.

On the same day, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski said, according to TVP World: “We are receiving information … that Russia is preparing something big this year.”

This is not the first time a wave of comments like this has appeared. A similar situation arose last year, when various officials in Europe took turns escalating their rhetoric about the Russian threat. It is possible that they are speaking out again because new information has surfaced within the intelligence community. The communication goal could be letting Russia know that they know. Much like CIA director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow last month, this could be an effort to make sure Russia doesn’t miscalculate.

The warnings also come in a different context from last year, when the Baltic countries were sounding the alarm. Russia has noticeably been turning up the temperature of its activity around Europe.

Back in July, a cruise missile crashed in Poland. According to experts , it was not a misguided missile, but one deliberately aimed at Poland. Then, in early August, a drone carrying an explosive device was discovered at Leipzig/Halle Airport in eastern Germany, close to Ukrainian cargo planes.

Germany’s interior minister Alexander Dobrindt said the Leipzig airport attack followed the “well-established pattern of Russian hybrid operations in Europe,” the BBC reported .

According to German investigators, who spoke to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung , the incident was also connected to other events, such as an attempted arson attack on a drone manufacturer in eastern Slovakia , and an arson attack in Munich on September 3 , when several incendiary devices were thrown from a passing car onto a construction site near the headquarters of defence firms Rohde & Schwarz and Helsing.

In fact, there have been so many different incidents recently that the semi-regular drone incursions into Romania and the Baltics have become almost normalised and struggle to make headlines anymore.

Scenarios of where Russia could take its hybrid attacks next are as abundant as onlookers' creativity allows. They range from small attacks on factories, through the seizure of a small piece of land by an elite drone unit, all the way to the capture of the Suwałki corridor - a strategic piece of land between the Baltic states and mainland Europe.

Most recently, the CIA warned that while all eyes had so far been on the Baltics, Russia may be preparing a drone strike against Spain, France, and Italy.

According to Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Estonian parliament's foreign affairs committee, the snowball of speculation about an imminent Russian attack on Europe is gathering pace.

But as he sees it, isolated facts are being mixed with wishful thinking, worst-case scenarios and, at times, little more than the need to grab attention.

As he wrote in an opinion piece for the Estonian news agency ERR : "Russia understands that it can confuse and paralyse us through information operations alone. Constant speculation about the Baltic states and Poland risks creating the impression that this is primarily a problem for two or three countries on Russia's doorstep, while the rest of Europe can somehow remain untouched."

According to Mihkelson, Russia's campaign against the West would not necessarily begin with a conventional attack.

It could start by undermining Nato from within: interfering in elections, amplifying polarising narratives, exploiting political divisions, and spreading fear. It could seek to isolate Ukraine by limiting Western support, and then test Nato's willingness to stand together.

As for worries that Russia will attempt to grab land from the Baltics or Poland, there are no significant material or military changes to note along the borders.

Belarus did hold a four-day military exercise near its border with the Suwałki corridor in mid-September, but that is nothing close to the signals we were getting from Russia just before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Back then, physical military infrastructure was being constructed ahead of the attack.

There are also no significant changes in the Russian military's posture to launch a land attack against the Baltics.

Estonian government officials confirm this . According to Estonia's minister of defence, Martin Herem, its assessment of the Russian threat remains unchanged.

That means Russia's main effort remains focused on its war in Ukraine, and neither Estonia, Denmark, nor other Nato allies currently see a threat requiring raised military readiness.

Military experts in Lithuania also see no signs of new escalation. This doesn't mean Russia won't continue to be dangerous. It means that Russia has been engaged in provocations against Nato countries for years already, and similar behaviour will continue.

"No one is currently planning to conquer us, not at this moment, nor this year. In this case, specific, very precise attacks or provocations are more likely, designed not so much to cause physical damage as to sow serious panic in people's minds," Deividas Šlekys, a professor at Vilnius University's Institute of Political Science and International Relations, told the Lithuanian wire LRT on Monday (28 September).

And so, while last autumn it was the Baltic states sounding the alarm about a potential Russian attack, now their officials are looking to calm the panic about their aggressive neighbour.

Tomáš Hrivňák is an economy reporter for Denník N. He studied Media Analysis and Research at Masaryk University and previously worked as a photojournalist. His reporting and photography have earned multiple awards, including the Slovak Press Photo and a Journalism Award for written reportage.