Is it too early to look at Premier League table?

Just five games in, it might seem a bit early to pay much attention to the Premier League table - but it's probably more settled than you think.

While it would be no surprise if Manchester City and Arsenal finish as the top two -outside of any points deductions or sanctions directed City's way - will Brentford really qualify for Europe, Hull stay up and Tottenham be involved in yet another relegation battle? Recent history certainly suggests it's likely.

It has to be mentioned there is a huge asterisk hanging over the Premier League table at the moment after Man City were found guilty of the majority of the Premier League charges levelled at them.

The Premier League leaders have appealed but, if the guilty verdict remains, potential sanctions could have a significant impact on the table. Until then, we can only deal with the table as it is now.

If we look at the Premier League after five games last season and where teams ultimately ended up, the final table was already starting to take shape as 13 of the 20 sides finished within four places of where they sat even at this early stage (65%).

Eventual champions Arsenal were second, Sunderland were already seventh ahead of finishing there eight months later, and two of the three sides that were relegated were already in the bottom three.

There were some notable exceptions. Aston Villa and Tottenham effectively swapped places at either end of the table, with Villa rising up from the bottom three to finish in the top four and Spurs dropping to 17th.

It's a similar story across the last 10 seasons of the Premier League. Over two-thirds of teams finished within four places of where they were after five games (138 out of 200), with 27 of those sitting in exactly the same position 33 games later.

Another 50 teams finished between five and nine places from where they were at this stage, meaning that just 12 teams in the last decade moved up or down the table by double digits after this point, with three of those coming last season.

However, one part of the table that doesn't settle quickly is the top spot. The side leading the Premier League after five games has gone on to win the title in just one of the last six seasons – Man City doing so in 2023-24 – and just three times in the last 11 seasons.

Even the fact that Man City have five wins out of five so far doesn't mean much. They also won their first five games under Manuel Pellegrini in 2015-16 and in Pep Guardiola's first season in 2016-17 but didn't go on to win the title on either occasion (although they did in 2023-24).

Chelsea in 2018-19, Arsenal in 2022-23 and Liverpool last season were also top with a 100% record at this stage but had little to show for it at the end of the season.

However, the eventual champions have been in the top two at this point in each of the last four campaigns, suggesting - potential punishments aside - it will be Man City or Arsenal that lifts the trophy. The last team to be outside the top two after five games and win the title were Man City in 2021-22, who were fifth with just 10 points.

The top end of the table overall has sometimes settled surprisingly quickly in recent years. The top eight after five games in 2024-25 finished as the top eight at the end of that season (although not in the same order), while the top six in 2019-20 and top seven in 2016-17 were also in place at this early stage.

While being top after five games hasn't meant much in recent seasons, being bottom certainly has.

After finishing just one place above the drop in the last two campaigns, Tottenham could well be in trouble once again as the side bottom of the Premier League after five games has been relegated in six of the last seven seasons.

Being bottom this early didn't used to be such a bad omen. Between 2013-14 and 2018-19, only one of the six sides that were propping up the table after five games ended up going down – Newcastle in 2015-16 – while Crystal Palace finished as high as 11th in 2017-18.

In fact, the good news for Tottenham fans is that the last time they were in this situation, they finished eighth. The club were bottom with just two points after five games in 2008-09 but, after replacing manager Juande Ramos with Harry Redknapp three games later, still finished in the top half.

Looking at the relegation battle more broadly, at least one of the teams in the bottom three at this stage has been relegated in the last eight seasons - so one of Tottenham , Fulham and Coventry will very likely be heading to the Championship in May.

The pool of contestants for this season's relegation battle may already be decided too as the three sides that ultimately went down in the last three seasons were all in the bottom six after five games, which would add Bournemouth , Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to the mix.

The last sides to be outside the bottom six at this point but relegated were Leeds and Southampton in 2022-23, who were both in the top half (7th and 9th). With their teams currently sat in 8th and 11th place, Hull and Ipswich fans will hope that's still the case at the end of this campaign.

While the season may well have barely begun, the Premier League table is already starting to take shape.

'Far from their best' to 'a joy to watch' - ranking Premier League teams' start to season

How Premier League teams have really started - according to xG