Le Pen avoids election ban, raising risk of far-right French win
Marine Le Pen can contest the French presidential election after an appeal court lifted her voting ban despite her conviction for embezzling EU funds, raising the prospect of a far-right government that could destabilise Europe.
Marine Le Pen will be allowed to run in next year's French presidential election after a Paris appeal court lifted a five-year suspension from electoral politics. The court reduced the ban to 15 months, one month less than the time she has already served. This reprieve came despite her conviction for a second time for organising a conspiracy to steal millions of Euros from the European Union.
Judges found Le Pen bore a "grave" responsibility for running a system to staff her party with fake assistants paid by the European Parliament. She faces a one-year jail sentence, expected to be served under house arrest starting in March 2025.
Just days ago, Le Pen told TF1 news she would not run if the conviction was confirmed. She argued it would be impossible to campaign properly while needing a magistrate's permission to appear in public. Following a three-hour meeting with Jordan Bardella and other Rassemblement National leaders, she abandoned that position.
She told TF1 she was confident a new appeal would prove her "innocent". However, her lawyers will not argue her innocence, but rather a technicality that the law applies to national politicians stealing taxpayer money, not EU politicians stealing EU money. This argument was already dismissed by the appeal court in January.
A risk to European stability
If she loses the final appeal this winter, Le Pen will be forced to campaign for the April 18th first round and May 2nd second round under house arrest. She is gambling that she can spin out the appeal until after the election, or otherwise claim martyrdom. The appeal court stated its decision to reduce the ban was to allow the "authentic expression of a democratic choice".
For investors and European policymakers, this judicial manoeuvring carries significant weight. A far-right victory on May 2nd threatens to plunge France and Europe into the unknown at a time of multiple crises. Financial markets now face a heightened risk of a twice-convicted embezzler of EU funds taking the helm of the bloc's second-largest economy.
