Europe's largest company ASML lifts 2026 forecast on AI boom
ASML has significantly raised its 2026 sales forecast as sustained AI investment outweighs market fears of a bubble and ongoing US-China export restrictions, cementing Europe's strategic role in the global chip supply chain.
Europe's biggest company by market capitalisation, ASML, has raised its 2026 net sales forecast to between €43 billion and €45 billion, up from a previous range of €36 billion to €40 billion. For the third quarter of 2026, the company projects net sales between €11 billion and €12 billion. The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker also lifted its projected gross margin to between 54% and 56%, sending its shares up more than 5%.
The upgrade follows a stronger-than-expected second quarter, with net sales reaching €9.3 billion and net profits hitting €2.9 billion. Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet attributed the performance to AI investments, stating they are "driving demand for advanced Logic and Memory chips, further strengthening the semiconductor industry's growth outlook."
As the only company in the world producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, ASML holds a monopoly over the equipment required to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors. Its tools are essential for producing everything from smartphones to missiles, making its order book a key bellwether for the global tech sector.
To meet this demand, ASML plans to increase production capacity by roughly 30% next year for both its EUV and older deep ultraviolet systems. The company is considering an additional 30% expansion in 2028. Fouquet noted that customers "continue to accelerate their capacity expansion plans," giving the company "increased visibility into longer-term demand."
The strong numbers arrive despite ASML being caught in US-China tech tensions, where Washington is restricting high-tech exports over military concerns. Beijing has labelled these curbs "technological terrorism." Yet Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said ASML expects China to account for around 20% of its 2026 sales, noting the market is "moving in sync with the overall behaviour that we see globally."
The results follow recent sharp tech sell-offs driven by fears that the AI bubble might burst. Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, said the figures reinforce "just how strong demand remains across the semiconductor sector." He pointed to a "solid beat and raise," noting "particularly strong demand coming from both memory and logic chips, although memory is currently growing faster."
