Turnberry trade deal faces new US tariff threats at one year
One year after the Turnberry agreement was supposed to stabilise transatlantic commerce, European businesses face expiring US tariffs and fresh threats from Washington despite a surge in bilateral trade.
The EU-US trade deal struck a year ago at Turnberry reaches its first anniversary this week with its legal foundation crumbling in Washington. The 15 percent US tariffs imposed under the agreement are set to expire on 24 July after the US Supreme Court invalidated the original legal basis for the duties. Congress is unlikely to extend them ahead of the midterm elections.
Yet the underlying transatlantic economy has proven resilient. EU-US goods and services trade actually rose 4.5 percent to €1.8 trillion in 2025, as companies front-loaded shipments to beat tariffs, offsetting a later slowdown. Since January 2025, US importers have paid around €31 billion in extra duties, though US data shows $81 billion has been refunded globally following the Supreme Court ruling.
Brussels has largely kept its side of the bargain to prevent further escalation, finally removing its tariffs on US industrial products on 1 July. European companies are on track to meet the pledged €520 billion in US investments and €700 billion in US energy purchases by 2028. The phasing out of Russian gas and the outbreak of the Iran war pushed EU imports of US LNG and oil to record levels, with energy deals worth over $250 billion signed last year alone.
Despite European compliance, the White House is already preparing new levies. Washington is expected to introduce tariffs targeting forced labour and overcapacity under Section 301 of the Trade Act. Brussels strongly disputes the forced labour findings but has signalled it will tolerate the new duties as long as they do not breach the 15 percent cap established at Turnberry.
European negotiators are meanwhile pushing for exemptions on roughly €150 billion of exports, including agricultural staples like wine, olive oil and Roquefort. Progress on lifting separate 50 percent US tariffs on steel and aluminium remains unlikely given US domestic priorities. Furthermore, a US investigation into German drug pricing could trigger yet another wave of punitive measures, ensuring the transatlantic trade saga continues.
