FIFA targets 2038 US World Cup to unlock full media value
FIFA is quietly encouraging a US bid for the 2038 World Cup after realising it severely undervalued the tournament's American television rights, setting the stage for a lucrative bidding war among US media and tech giants.
Donald Trump has publicly demanded the World Cup returns to the United States within the next decade, but the driving force behind a potential 2038 bid is strictly financial. FIFA has been actively encouraging a return to the US market after witnessing an unprecedented surge in tournament revenue.
At a meeting in New York on Saturday, FIFA president Gianni Infantino told the governing body’s 211 member associations that revenue projections for the current four-year cycle have jumped from $11bn to $15bn. This growth is largely powered by American consumers, with US ticketing and hospitality sales alone surpassing $5bn. For the first time, this physical attendance segment is now worth more than the tournament’s global television rights.
Despite this ticketing boom, FIFA left significant money on the table regarding US broadcast rights. Fox Sports secured the English-language rights for the 2026 tournament without a competitive bidding process for $485m. FIFA awarded this relative bargain to avoid a lawsuit after moving the Qatar 2022 tournament to the winter, which created a direct clash with the NFL and NBA seasons.
The lack of competitive tension resulted in a steep discount for an expanded 48-team tournament held on US soil, especially when compared to the NFL’s $11bn annual domestic TV deal or the NBA’s $7bn. Fox has capitalised on this, with industry experts predicting the network will generate more than $1bn solely from television advertising.
FIFA is now determined to recoup this lost income in future cycles. The organisation expects ESPN and NBC to compete for the 2030 rights, while preliminary conversations have already taken place with Netflix. The streaming giant’s recent acquisition of US broadcast rights for the 2027 and 2031 Women’s World Cups signals its intent to disrupt the traditional sports media market.
A 2038 North American bid is structurally viable under FIFA’s confederation rotation policy following the 2030 and 2034 allocations. The North American confederation, Concacaf, has reservations about a solo US bid, but the financial gravity of the American market will be difficult for FIFA to ignore.
While Trump leaves office in January 2029, FIFA’s historical precedent suggests it could move quickly to lock in a host. As one senior figure at a FIFA hospitality partner noted: “Fifa will want to get back here as quickly as possible.”
