UniCredit targets Q4 Commerzbank control as Berlin steps back
UniCredit’s chief executive has set a timeline to seize control of Commerzbank this autumn, a move that would reshape European banking after the German government dropped its outright opposition.
UniCredit is preparing to take control of Commerzbank in the fourth quarter, according to chief executive Andrea Orcel. The Italian lender has steadily built its holding in the German bank to 48%, setting the stage for a conclusion to one of the continent's most prominent takeover battles. Orcel indicated the bank would not wait for Commerzbank's annual general meeting in May to make its move.
"With respect to the normal regulatory environment and antitrust, and what would allow us to take ownership of tendered shares and therefore exercise control, we think now potentially in Q4, maybe later, and that would mark the moment when we go in," Orcel told CNBC. He acknowledged that the two lenders remain "very different" and require significant alignment before a full merger can actually be executed.
The aggressive push is being underpinned by strong financial performance. UniCredit reported its best-ever second-quarter and first-half results on Thursday, upgrading its full-year net profit target to more than 11 billion euros. While reported second-quarter net profit fell 13% to 2.9 billion euros, this figure rose to 3.1 billion euros when excluding one-off hedging and funding costs specifically tied to the increased Commerzbank stake.
The political landscape surrounding the deal has notably shifted. The German Finance Ministry, which holds a 12% stake in Commerzbank, stated it was "now up to the two banks to talk to each other." This signals a reversal of the German government's previous outright opposition to the deal, though the ministry maintained its criticism of UniCredit's "aggressive approach."
Commerzbank's management continues to fiercely resist the overtures. The Italian bank took an initial 9% stake in 2024 before ramping it up to roughly 30% in March, a trajectory that Commerzbank has repeatedly pushed back against. In a statement, the German bank insisted that "only a constructive approach can create value for all stakeholders." Sascha Uebel, Commerzbank's deputy chair and works council head, called on the parties to "act like adults."
For European markets, the standoff represents a critical test of cross-border banking integration. UniCredit has framed the takeover as having evolved from an "attractive financial investment" into a "strategic transaction of substantial industrial value creation." If regulatory hurdles are cleared this autumn, the combination would create a pan-European banking powerhouse, fundamentally altering the competitive dynamics of the sector.
