Polish opposition splits, hardening right's EU climate stance
The departure of more than 30 MPs from Poland's Law and Justice party risks radicalising the country's conservative opposition ahead of the 2027 elections, increasing the likelihood that a future right-wing government would aggressively confront EU climate regulations.
More than 30 MPs have left Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, marking the largest internal rupture since its founding in 2001. The split follows a failed power struggle between party leader Jarosław Kaczyński and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki over the opposition's future direction. Kaczyński confirmed the break-up on Friday, stating simply: "it's all over."
The conflict centered on Kaczyński’s demand that Morawiecki dissolve his internal faction, Rozwój Plus, and sign a "loyalty declaration". Morawiecki refused, arguing the demand carried negative historical connotations, and offered instead to step down as a party vice-president. The failure of these talks exposes a fundamental divide over strategy following PiS's 2023 election defeat.
Kaczyński has steered PiS toward a harder conservative line, while Morawiecki’s camp argued for a broader centre-right appeal targeting moderate and business-oriented voters. With the moderates departing, the remaining PiS platform is likely to become more rigidly aligned with a confrontational stance toward the European Union. While the party officially rejects leaving the bloc, its dominant figures are increasingly hostile to core EU economic policies.
This evolution matters deeply for European energy markets and foreign investors. Przemysław Czarnek, a leading candidate to become prime minister if the conservatives win the 2027 election, has argued that Poland must withdraw from the EU’s Emissions Trading System to protect national economic competitiveness. President Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by PiS, has also renewed calls for a referendum on EU climate measures.
The governing coalition of Donald Tusk warns these moves risk fuelling anti-EU sentiment and laying the groundwork for a debate over Polish membership. For businesses, the split transforms the 2027 election into a three-way contest, but it removes a moderate, pro-business buffer from the right. The resulting rump party is uniformly committed to dismantling EU climate mechanisms it views as an economic liability.
Recent polls put PiS support between 19 percent and just under 30 percent, meaning any future conservative government would require coalition partners. The exact electoral impact of the split remains unclear, but the ideological direction of Poland's main opposition force is now firmly set.
