UK Labour gains on Reform as Farage hit by donations inquiries
Labour has closed the polling gap on Reform UK to just two points after new Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced a £100 million economic stimulus package, while Nigel Farage's party faces multiple police and tax inquiries over donor financing.
Andy Burnham has vaulted Labour to within two points of Reform UK just a week into his tenure as prime minister, according to the latest YouGov polling. The shift follows a series of economic measures, including a VAT cut on electricity bills and a £100 million business rates relief package for pubs, clubs and live music venues. Reform UK now stands at 23%, with Labour at 21% and the Conservatives at 20%.
For European investors, Burnham’s early agenda signals an active fiscal approach aimed at easing domestic cost pressures. Capping bus fares at £2 and reducing VAT on electricity from October will directly affect transport operators and utility revenues, though the new administration insists the measures are fully funded. The rapid pivot away from political uncertainty could stabilise the UK business environment, a key consideration for continental firms.
Reform UK’s sharp decline from a 28% vote share after May’s local elections coincides with intensifying scrutiny of its finances. The Metropolitan Police are investigating £500,000 in donations from Fiona Cottrell, the mother of convicted fraudster and Farage associate George Cottrell. Farage is also subject to a standards inquiry over a £5 million gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, while the Conservatives have asked HMRC to investigate whether he owed tax on that sum.
Internal briefing documents circulated to the party’s councillors show Reform UK has instructed local representatives to dismiss the police investigation as an establishment attack. Councillors were told to respond with: “It is now clear that the establishment will try anything to stop us.” The strategy appears to be failing, with YouGov recording Farage’s net favourability at -46, his lowest in a decade.
The political realignment has also lifted Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch to her party’s highest popularity rating in over five years. Meanwhile, More in Common polling puts Burnham’s net approval at +13, already surpassing any peak achieved by his predecessor, Keir Starmer. The tightening three-way race suggests the UK electorate is shifting focus from populist disruption toward immediate economic relief.
