Italian lower house advances Meloni's electoral reform to guarantee governing majorities
Italy’s lower house has advanced an electoral reform granting a parliamentary majority bonus to any coalition securing 42 percent of the vote, raising stakes for market stability and democratic norms ahead of potential early elections.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government has moved closer to overhauling Italy’s electoral system after the ‘Stabilicum’ bill cleared its first vote in the lower house. The legislation now requires only Senate approval, expected after the summer recess, to become law.
The reform replaces the current mixed system with fully proportional representation paired with a majority bonus. Any coalition securing at least 42 percent of the vote will receive 70 additional seats in the lower house and 35 in the Senate.
To prevent a constitutional supermajority, the bill caps the bonus at 220 lower house seats and 113 in the Senate. It also mandates that parties declare their prime ministerial candidate before elections, though voters will not directly select them on the ballot.
For European investors and markets, the legislation represents a bid to end Italy’s history of fragmented parliaments and short-lived governments. A predictable governing majority could stabilize fiscal policy and reform implementation, reducing the political risk premium on Italian assets.
However, the centre-left opposition condemns the move as an unacceptable power grab. Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein argues the reform would severely distort representative democracy, while political theorist Nadia Urbinati compares it to the 1923 Acerbo Law, warning of anti-democratic implications.
The new rules could reshape the dynamics of Italy’s next election, which analysts suggest could be called as early as April. Vincenzo Emanuele, a political science professor at Luiss University, notes that the candidate requirement disadvantages the centre-left, which currently lacks a unified leader.
Meloni’s right-wing coalition may struggle to reach the 42 percent threshold alone, potentially forcing an alliance with Roberto Vannacci’s far-right Futuro Nazionale party. Alessandro Chiaramonte, a professor at the University of Florence, warns this carries risks, as Vannacci is positioning himself as a radical alternative and a future leadership contender.
If the right-wing factions fail to unite, Chiaramonte notes the centre-left could capitalize on the split to secure a parliamentary majority. Alternatively, if no coalition reaches the 42 percent threshold, Italy would revert to the post-election parliamentary bargaining that characterized the periods between 2013 and 2022.
Despite the political friction, legal experts remain divided on the law’s ultimate survival. Emanuele argues the seat cap mitigates the risk of unconstitutional overreach, but Urbinati anticipates that a weakened parliamentary opposition will force the Constitutional Court to become the final arbiter of the reform’s legitimacy.
