New UK PM Burnham edges Labour ahead of Reform in polls

Andy Burnham has given the governing Labour Party a narrow lead in the polls since entering Downing Street almost a fortnight ago. The shift was confirmed by a convincing victory in Thursday's Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, where Labour secured 47% of the first preference vote.

This recovery follows a historically dire baseline. When Sir Keir Starmer resigned in late June, Labour's 19% polling average was the lowest ever passed on by a mid-term departing prime minister, falling even below the 23% left by Liz Truss. While Labour now sits in the mid-20s, its highest standing since early last year, this remains the weakest polling average for any newly minted mid-term premier.

The party is also still well adrift of the 35% it secured at the 2024 general election. Consequently, Burnham has ruled out an early election.

Labour's return to the top of the polls owes as much to Reform UK's self-inflicted wounds as it does to renewed government popularity. Reform has faced weeks of questions regarding the legality of its funding and whether Nigel Farage properly declared donations to Commons authorities. Farage announced he was standing down on July 7 to face a by-election in his Clacton constituency on August 13.

That strategy appears to have backfired. Reform's polling fell from 27% to 24%, its lowest level in 15 months. The party also bled support to Restore Britain, a breakaway movement led by Rupert Lowe that captured nearly 9% of the Manchester vote.

The immediate beneficiaries of Burnham's arrival have been the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, both of which dropped two points in the polls. The Greens, who had absorbed disillusioned Labour voters, fell to 11%. The proportion of 2024 Labour voters backing the Greens dropped from 14% under Starmer to 9% under Burnham.

For European neighbours and investors monitoring British political stability, the broader landscape remains highly fragmented. Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives have edged up to 20% in the polls for the first time since last spring. More significantly, the working-class, pro-Brexit voters who once formed Labour's core base remain firmly aligned with Reform.

Burnham has arrested Labour's decline, but his long-term prospects hinge on tangible governance. To secure a path to the 2029 general election, the new prime minister must demonstrate that his policies are actually being delivered, rather than relying on the temporary respite provided by his opponents' missteps.