PL Predictions: Back buzzing Brentford to sting Liverpool

Our football betting expert Lewis Jones landed three of his four best bets last weekend; watch Newcastle vs Aston Villa, Bournemouth vs Sunderland, Brighton vs Crystal Palace, Leeds vs Man Utd, Forest vs Arsenal & Tottenham vs Coventry all live on Sky Sports; Play Super 6 to win £1m!

Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for a busy weekend of Premier League action.

Set pieces could be where this game is won and lost - and the numbers suggest Chelsea are there to be got at.

Everton under David Moyes have built a clear identity around dead-ball situations, using their physicality and aerial presence to turn corners and free kicks into genuine scoring opportunities. Chelsea, meanwhile, have developed a rather less convincing reputation in this department. They have already conceded seven goals from set pieces this season - more than any other Premier League side.

And this is not simply a short-term problem. Chelsea are conceding set-piece goals at a rate of 0.53 per 90 minutes since the start of last season, the highest ratio of any Premier League team over that period.

So, who better to target in the goalscorer market than James Tarkowski.

The Everton defender is a major weapon at attacking set pieces, leading the way among the club's defenders for touches in the opposition box and shots. His recent record offers further encouragement. Tarkowski has scored three times across his last 15 games, including a goal against Bournemouth this season.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Andoni Iraola has a miserable record against Brentford, going seven meetings without a win and losing five of them.

Brentford's direct approach has repeatedly caused problems for his footballing philosophy, finding ways to bypass the press and turn matches into the sort of physical, second-ball contests that can leave his teams exposed.

Of course, Iraola now has a higher calibre of player at his disposal than he did at Bournemouth. But better players do not automatically solve tactical problems, particularly when the opposition know how to exploit them. Brentford have shown they can make life difficult for this style of football.

Liverpool's early-season numbers also make uncomfortable reading. Liverpool have scored just six non-penalty Premier League goals, the sixth-fewest in the division. More concerning is the lack of quality chances they are creating. They have manufactured only nine Opta-defined big chances, the joint-lowest total alongside Aston Villa and Coventry. Brighton, by comparison, have created 27.

At 11/10 with Sky Bet, backing Brentford on the double chance alongside under 3.5 goals offers a route in.

The betting market still appears reluctant to trust Hull City whatsoever, with their long-standing underlying data seemingly carrying too much weight in the assessment of their chances. But football matches are not played on historical spreadsheets. And what Hull are producing right now suggests they deserve considerably more respect.

They have lost just one of their six Premier League matches this season, against Newcastle - and even that defeat came with a significant caveat: Hull won the expected goals battle. They also came out on top in that metric during their 2-2 draw at Chelsea.

Hull are proving capable of competing with established Premier League sides while carrying a genuine threat of their own.

They look a dangerous proposition for a Fulham side who have looked alarmingly fragile when games have begun to turn against them.

The collapses against Ipswich and Crystal Palace, having been in winning positions, are difficult to ignore. Against an opponent willing to keep asking questions, that defensive vulnerability could become costly.

At 6/5 with Sky Bet, Hull on the double chance is the bet of the weekend.

The market is still judging Hull on what they were rather than what they are. I'm happy to take advantage while that gap in perception remains.

Manchester City are winning football matches at a rate that their underlying numbers simply cannot justify. That is not necessarily a reason to oppose them but it does make me question whether the market is giving enough consideration to the chances their opponents are creating.

No team has overperformed its expected-goals numbers more than City, with the expected-points model suggesting they should have collected around seven fewer points than they have. That gap deserves scrutiny. It is not just about City's ruthless finishing at one end, it is also about the opportunities they are allowing at the other.

Look at Sunderland, who generated 2.97 expected goals from 17 shots against City. Coventry also managed 12 shots in their 1-0 defeat at the Etihad.

That opens the door for Ipswich to contribute to the scoring here.

At 4/5 with Sky Bet, both teams to score is the angle. City's results may be sparkling in the Premier League but their underlying defensive numbers tell a less comfortable story.

Johan Manzambi could be one of the Premier League's breakout stars this season. Under Unai Emery, the young Swiss forward has been given a prominent role playing off the central striker, and the early signs are that he is ready to make the most of it.

In his last three starts, Manzambi has registered 13 shots, with four hitting the target and two finding the net. When that kind of volume is combined with a favourable fixture, the goalscorer market starts to look interesting.

And Newcastle are about as favourable a defensive opponent as you could ask for.

If the Magpies concede here, they will set a new club record for consecutive home games in all competitions without keeping a clean sheet (16). Their defensive record at St James' Park this calendar year is particularly damning, conceding 36 goals and keeping just two clean sheets across 20 home matches in all competitions.

Bournemouth and Sunderland have managed just one win between them across their six matches this season. That sort of start can change the psychology of a football match. Confidence becomes fragile and avoiding defeat can feel more important than chasing victory.

That makes under 2.5 goals at Evens an interesting proposition with Sky Bet.

Bournemouth's historical goal numbers might tempt you towards another open, entertaining contest. Across their last 50 matches, the average total has been 3.1 goals per game. But I would be wary of leaning too heavily on that data in this spot.

After shipping five goals in a single game at Chelsea, it is only natural for a team to take stock. Defensive security can become the priority.

That is where the draw becomes an interesting possibility which rows alongside a low-scoring game. Neither side has done enough so far to inspire complete confidence and a cagey contest in which both teams are reluctant to play too risky would hardly be a surprise.

Pascal Gross has been one of the Premier League's outstanding performers this season. He is the player who makes Brighton tick. But he carries a serious goal threat, too.

Four goals already this season underlines that point. Add the fact he is on penalties and there are multiple routes to a goal.

The market appears to be anticipating a comfortable win for Brighton with their expected goal output approaching three. That creates an interesting opportunity in the player goalscorer markets. If Brighton are expected to score freely, why are we being offered 7/2 with Sky Bet about one of their most influential players finding the net? That feels large.

Gross has the technical quality to arrive in dangerous positions, the composure to finish chances and the added advantage of penalty-taking duties. In a fixture where Brighton are expected to create plenty, those qualities make him an appealing candidate to get on the scoresheet.

It doesn't exactly take a Tony Bloom-like figure to work out that Leeds are a bet at these prices with 13/10 being offered by Sky Bet.

Sometimes the noise surrounding Manchester United can become so deafening that it distorts the betting market but the chaos at Old Trafford right now makes the odds-against price about a Leeds victory particularly appealing.