Too little, too late: Trump takes on gas prices as fuel costs hamper his midterm hopes

Polls show US voters are deeply upset by high gas prices and are likely to punish Republicans in the midterms as a result

With fewer than two weeks until the midterm s, US voters are unlikely to see relief on one of this election cycle’s main issues: gas prices.

Airing up her car’s tires at a Speedway in Perrysburg, Ohio , Toledo resident Sharie Smith, 41, says soaring costs are having a direct impact on her life.

“It’s affecting my budget,” she says. “You got to take away certain things, you got to take away from your kids, like extracurricular activities.” She says high gas prices are making it harder to pay for the fees for her children’s football games.

Every 10 days, she used to fill up her gray Chevy Malibu for $30 to $40, but now it costs $50 to $60. It stings, she says. “Especially that with the price of groceries,” she adds.

“And I don’t even have a big car. I feel bad for those people with big cars, like trucks.”

Donald Trump has made many promises about bringing down gas prices and specifically touted several diesel cost-savings deals this month, but voters won’t see lower costs by 3 November, say energy analysts.

National average prices for gasoline and diesel are down marginally from a month ago, according to AAA , but remain substantially higher than last year. Compared with 2025, gasoline costs are up more than $1.25 a gallon, at $4.29, while diesel prices are up nearly 75%, to $6.30 a gallon.

Polls show that US voters are deeply upset by high gas prices and are likely to punish Republicans as a result. A 10 October poll by Politico showed that even if Trump were to bring the price of gasoline down by $1 a gallon, most voters polled would not likely be swayed to vote Republican.

Earlier this month, Trump announced several deals attempting to lower diesel prices, including promoting greater use of “red dye” diesel fuel normally reserved for off-highway use, temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian diesel imports, and now a one-time, $8bn diesel-fuel subsidy for farmers to help with harvest.

“Diesel prices for Americans and, indeed, the world, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my greatest priority,” Trump posted on his social media site.

Ed Hirs, energy fellow at the University of Houston, says these moves will have no impact. “Zero. No elaboration needed,” he says.

Under the Russia deal, the US can import 2.24m barrels of Russian diesel, with more to follow. That initial figure amounts to just 14 hours of US diesel demand, says Andrew Critchlow, head of energy news for Dow Jones Energy. For context, the global diesel market uses nearly 30m barrels a day.

Hirs adds that the deal with Putin is not for new supply. “It was going someplace. It was going someplace at a discount. And now what Trump has done is, rather than have Russia sell it at a discount, they’re selling it for full value. He’s given them a huge windfall,” Hirs says.

Diesel fuel is an important transportation fuel globally, critical in the last-mile delivery of most consumer goods, so everyone feels the pinch, says Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. Energy prices across the board are higher because of the US war on Iran, which closed the strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world’s crude oil flows.

Producing more diesel is difficult because Middle East refineries were damaged early in the war, and Chinese refiners are unable to get enough oil to produce any extra fuel for world markets. Recent attacks on Russian refiners by Ukrainian drones have further cut global supplies. US refineries have access to domestic oil but are running at maximum capacity, Thummel says.

The White House has characterized its recent executive order to temporarily allow greater use of red-dye diesel as a cost-saving measure for farmers and truckers. This fuel is exempt from federal excise taxes because it is intended for farmers and off-road machinery and is stained red to differentiate it from regular diesel. The White House says the 24.4 cents per gallon discount will save those drivers about $60 on a 250-gallon fill up.

Yet Hirs says it gives farmers more competition for fuel, which will raise their prices. Farmers already are being buffeted by higher operating costs across the board and losing China as a key export market because of the US’s trade war with the Asian nation.

Prices could rise as energy demand increases in the winter heating months, especially in places that use heating oil, experts add. Energy prices are seasonal, and prices are usually lower at this time of year since it’s neither cooling nor heating season, says Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer of real-asset investment firm InfraCap. Despite typically lower seasonal demand, prices are already high.

There are risks of higher prices if the fighting in the Middle East escalates, Hatfield says, pointing to a pickup of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia as an example.

Critchlow says with many countries having depleted strategic stocks and few countries have released reserves, it might not take too much to push prices up. “I think that we are in a very fragile position now, marketwise,” he says.

The only moves that will lower energy costs are to open the strait of Hormuz to get more oil flowing, and to negotiate a peace accord between Russia and Ukraine, as these two conflicts are interlinked with energy markets, the energy experts say.

If those conflicts were resolved, Critchlow says the energy situation could be drastically different two years from now, with the world being oversupplied with fossil-fuel energy.

That change can’t come soon enough for some drivers. Lotanpa Jones, a home healthcare aide, was filling up at a Mobil in St Charles, Missouri, earlier this month. Regular fuel was $4.09 a gallon, last 1 October the national average price was $3.15 to $3.19, according to data from AAA . Diesel was $6.59 a gallon, up from $3.71 a year ago, according to data tracked by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

“I can tell you this is making me want to park my car,” said Jones.

She said she had last filled up her car two days earlier and now was adding another $55.

“It’s affecting a lot because you gotta decide what you’re gonna buy,” she said. “It’s major.”

Jones said she thought it would affect who people vote for. “Most definitely. Yes, this is extreme.”

Ironically, given Trump’s antipathy towards electric vehicles, Critchlow foresees the current crisis eventually pushing electrification for consumers, heavy industry and agriculture in the US. The shift in consumption and energy mix mirrors the 1970s energy shock, he says. “We are going to see something similar,” he says.

In the meantime, gas prices are likely to take their toll on Republicans come 3 November. Back in Ohio , Smith, a home health nurse, says she has already lost patients because of Medicaid eligibility changes made by the state, which she criticized Republicans for. “They’re thinking about the wrong things, and now the price of gas is going up,” Smith says.

As for who she is voting for, she says: “I’m going Democrat.” As for the Republican candidates, she adds: “They don’t have any idea what people are going through.”