EU population peaks in 2029, pressuring long-term growth
The bloc's population will begin a century-long decline in five years, threatening labour shortages and public budgets as the workforce rapidly ages.
Currently at 450.6 million, the European Union’s population is projected to peak at 453.3 million in 2029 before entering a sustained decline. By 2100, the bloc’s population will fall to 398.8 million, an 11.7 percent contraction returning the continent to sizes last seen in the 1970s.
This trajectory is driven by vastly improved healthcare and social conditions, which have pushed life expectancy to 81.5 years in 2024. Researchers expect these gains to continue, with life expectancy potentially exceeding 90 years for women and 86 years for men by the turn of the century.
For European businesses and investors, the critical takeaway is the accelerating shift in the dependency ratio. The EU’s Joint Research Centre projects that by 2050, nearly one in three residents will be 65 or older, a sharp rise from one in five today.
This aging profile threatens to constrain economic growth through severe labour shortages and mounting pressure on public budgets. "Demographic change is reshaping our societies, our economies and our labour markets," EU commissioner Dubravka Suica said in a statement.
The demographic data is not uniformly negative for the private sector. The report identifies the rise of the "silver economy" as a major emerging market, creating new demand for goods and services specifically designed for older consumers.
Policymakers warn that relying on migration to plug the labour gap has limits. While immigration can help offset some effects, researchers said it will have a limited impact on fully addressing the economic challenges posed by an ageing population.
Instead, the EU insists that boosting productivity and reducing unemployment are essential to sustaining economic output. There is significant untapped potential within the current population. Roughly 20 percent of working-age Europeans are outside the labour force entirely.
Furthermore, about eight million young people are currently neither in employment, education, nor training. Integrating these groups into the workforce will be vital to counteracting the long-term demographic drag. "We must act now to turn this transformation into an opportunity," Suica added.
