EU and Ukraine near drone pact as war momentum shifts

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv today to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, marking a dramatic reversal from her previous trip in late February. At that time, the country was suffering through a brutal winter marked by widespread blackouts stemming from Russian attacks. Hungary had also firmly blocked the EU’s €90 billion support loan, leaving Ukraine’s accession process completely paralysed.

The economic and military picture has since shifted. Ukrainian forces are currently executing long-range strikes against Russian oil refineries, igniting a severe fuel crisis that pressures the Russian war economy. The €90 billion loan is now operational, and Kyiv opened another cluster of accession negotiations just yesterday.

“Ukraine has built a strong military momentum. The tide is turning," von der Leyen said upon arrival, adding that “The EU is fully playing its part, with our €90 billion loan.”

Talks between the two leaders are heavily focused on unmanned aerial vehicles, with details of an anticipated “drone deal” expected on Wednesday. A central proposal involves building and stockpiling drones inside EU territory before transferring them to Ukraine. Officials plan to frame this as a reciprocal arrangement, pairing European industrial scale with Ukrainian technological ingenuity.

This diplomatic push coincides with a government reshuffle in Kyiv that removed Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko after just a year in office. Attention now centres on Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who is only six months into his tenure. Despite maintaining a low public profile, he has earned widespread praise from civil society and the military for his reform-focused approach to management.

Removing him now raises credibility issues, particularly as Ukrainian troops have struck more than 100 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov in just eight days. This has opened a new front to choke off Moscow's logistics in Crimea. In Brussels, ambassadors are meeting this morning for another attempt to agree on a 21st package of sanctions against Russia before the oil price cap is automatically revised upward. Zelenskyy has warned that “every day of delay in sanctions decisions” gives Moscow more time to prepare for deadly airstrikes. The talks are pushing the sanctions package to the wire.

A separate agreement signed in Brussels on Tuesday between the EU and the UK will lead to the demolition of the border fence separating Gibraltar from Spain. The move eliminates the regular border checks that have become a staple of daily life since the territory's future was thrown into doubt by Brexit. A staggering 96% of Gibraltar's population had voted against leaving the bloc.

A new pact governing the movement of people and goods, reached in April after negotiations between the EU, UK, Gibraltar and Spain, enters into force provisionally today. It is pending final approval by the European and UK parliaments. Spain’s Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares told journalists the deal opens “a new period in the bilateral relationship between Spain and the United Kingdom” and provides the “last missing peace” to close Brexit.

He emphasised that the pact does not change Spain’s claim to sovereignty over Gibraltar “a single bit”. “We guarantee and protect our claim to sovereignty (over Gibraltar),” he said. Gibraltar’s Chief Minister Fabián Picardo countered by calling for a focus on “all of the other issues that we agree on”, adding that the agreement ensures “where there was a fence, there is now fluidity”.