Migration drives EU population to 452 million despite falling birth rates
The EU's population grew to 452 million in early 2026, but an overreliance on net migration to offset record-low births masks a looming demographic crisis that threatens Europe's workforce and public finances.
The European Union's population reached 452 million at the start of 2026, an increase of 706,000 people from the previous year, according to Eurostat. This marks the fifth straight year of growth following a pandemic-driven dip in 2021.
The combined population of current member states has grown significantly over the long term, rising from 354.5 million in 1960. However, this headline figure obscures a structural shift in how that growth is generated. Since 2012, the bloc has consistently recorded more deaths than births, meaning the overall expansion is now entirely dependent on positive net migration.
Furthermore, the pace of expansion is decelerating. The EU population grew by an average of 3 million people per year in the 1960s, but this slowed to just 600,000 annually in the 2010s. The bloc's population is now 8 million higher than it was a decade ago in 2016.
The demographic landscape remains highly uneven across the continent. Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland account for two-thirds of the EU's total population. Germany leads with 83.5 million residents, followed by France at 69.1 million, Italy at 58.9 million, Spain at 49.6 million and Poland at 36.3 million.
Conversely, the highest relative growth rates occurred in the bloc's smallest nations. Malta's population grew by 24 per 1,000 people, while Cyprus and Luxembourg increased by 14 and 13 per 1,000 respectively. Sixteen member states saw their populations rise, while Latvia, Estonia and Hungary suffered the steepest relative declines.
For European businesses and policymakers, the long-term economic implications of these trends are severe. Eurostat projects the EU population will shrink by 11.7%, or 53 million people, by 2100 as birth rates continue to fall. Experts warn this trajectory will result in fewer workers supporting a growing retiree population, placing severe strain on pension and healthcare systems.
Some governments are already attempting to intervene. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for "demographic rearmament" after France recorded more deaths than births in 2025, the first time this happened since the Second World War. In response, the French government introduced additional shared parental leave of one or two months on top of existing entitlements.
