Spain loses one in six tourists to extreme heat, CaixaBank finds
Record summer temperatures are driving a permanent shift in tourist behaviour that threatens Spain’s largest economic engine.
Extreme heat in Spain is reducing the rate at which international tourists return to the country. A new analysis by CaixaBank Research found that visitors who endure abnormally hot holidays are roughly 15 percent less likely to book another trip to Spain compared to those who experienced normal weather. This effectively means the country loses about one in six potential repeat visitors after a severe heatwave.
The data, drawn from anonymous foreign card payments and climate records, indicates that surviving a heatwave fundamentally alters travel plans. Tourists who experienced temperatures above 32C during their stay actively sought out destinations with average temperatures at least five degrees lower on their next holiday. Rather than abandoning the country entirely, returning visitors are simply shifting their trips to cooler seasons or different regions.
Geography still plays a major role in these decisions. The Mediterranean coast accounts for nearly two-thirds of international arrivals, and 85.2 percent of repeat visitors chose a Mediterranean destination again. Only 1.8 percent switched to the Atlantic coast, such as Galicia. However, tourists are increasingly selecting Mediterranean towns at higher altitudes or areas less prone to extreme temperatures.
The broader economic implications for Spain are severe. The tourism sector generates nearly 13 percent of the country's GDP and employment, making the loss of customer loyalty a major financial threat. CaixaBank Research warned that “the loss of customer loyalty associated with heat waves could have a long-term impact on one of the main drivers of the Spanish economy, which has registered record levels in recent years.”
There is already evidence of a geographic shift toward cooler climates. Data from the Spanish Tourist Office shows that visits to the wetter, greener northern coast increased by 4 million between 2019 and 2023. In 2025, Asturias saw an 11.86 percent jump in tourist numbers, while Galicia welcomed over 8 million visitors following a 3.2 percent increase.
The findings build on earlier 2024 research by the bank, which found that extreme heat following the hottest year on record in 2023 caused tourists to spend less money. According to the experts, “climate change not only represents an environmental challenge, but also a competitive advantage for the Spanish tourism sector.” Adapting to these shifting preferences will now be a commercial necessity for an industry facing a structural climate test.
