Europe awaits Burnham's defence spending and EU trade reset signals

Andy Burnham is set to become the UK's next prime minister, replacing Keir Starmer. His arrival marks the country's fifth leader since Brexit, a frequency of change that has not gone unnoticed abroad.

For European governments, the immediate question is economic. EU capitals are watching to see if Burnham will sustain Starmer's efforts to "reset" trade relations, or if he will maintain Labour's strict red lines against rejoining the single market or customs union. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot captured the broader continental mood by hoping for "as much stability as possible" across the Channel.

The more pressing concern for Europe is defence. EU allies are anxiously watching whether Burnham will honour the NATO commitment to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035. This target is viewed in European capitals as a critical benchmark for continental security, particularly as threats from Russia persist.

That defence spending target faces external pressure. US officials are already pushing Burnham's team to set an even higher military spending example for Europe, following tensions over American access to British military bases during the Iran War. Donald Trump, who views Burnham as a "mayor of a town" and suspects he is "extremely liberal", remains unconvinced the new leader will address US grievances on energy extraction and immigration.

Despite domestic political churn, British foreign policy appears rigid. Moscow expects no shift, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating it is "unlikely that anyone on the British political scene will have a different position to Keir Starmer on our bilateral relations." Russian state media has already labelled Burnham "a consistent critic of Russia, who constantly calls for the West to adopt a tougher stance on Russia."

This continuity brings some relief to Kyiv, which needs unwavering military and economic aid, though Ukrainian officials worry about the optics of British instability. Meanwhile, Beijing views the revolving door of British leaders as a symptom of an "identity crisis" since Brexit, complicating any potential return to the pragmatic, balanced economic engagement Starmer pursued during his visit to the Chinese capital.

Burnham takes power with clear domestic priorities but a largely blank slate on foreign affairs. For European investors and policymakers, his premiership will be judged on whether he can reconcile an increasingly hostile Washington with the security and economic needs of his immediate neighbours.