World Cup final to settle tight 2026 Ballon d'Or race
Sunday's World Cup final between Spain and Argentina will likely settle one of the most open Ballon d'Or races in recent history, proving that individual scoring records are no match for major international silverware.
Spain and Argentina meet in Sunday's World Cup final in New York, a match poised to settle one of the most open Ballon d'Or races in the award's history. Unlike recent years, there is no clear favourite heading into the voting.
The uncertainty highlights a persistent trend in European football: individual brilliance is rarely rewarded without major team silverware. Only four of the past 19 Ballon d'Or winners did not lift the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in the same year. Lionel Messi accounts for three of those exceptions, with Cristiano Ronaldo responsible for the other.
This reality severely diminishes the prospects of Europe's most prolific club footballers. Harry Kane scored 61 goals in 51 games as Bayern Munich secured a league and cup double, but his team fell in the Champions League semi-finals. "I could score 100 goals this season, but if I don't win the Champions League or the World Cup, I'm probably not going to win the Ballon d'Or," Kane said in November.
Kylian Mbappe faces a similar barrier after a trophyless season with Real Madrid, despite topping the scoring charts in both La Liga and the Champions League. Erling Haaland won a third Premier League Golden Boot in four seasons but only collected domestic cups with Manchester City. Jude Bellingham dragged England to the World Cup semi-finals, but an injury-hit campaign and a lack of silverware rule him out.
Even players who won Europe's biggest prize find themselves relying on the World Cup to stay in the conversation. Ousmane Dembele retained the Champions League with Paris St-Germain but saw his club output limited by injuries, making his five World Cup goals and two assists crucial. His PSG team-mate Khvicha Kvaratskhelia shone in Europe but missed the tournament entirely, as Georgia did not qualify.
Bayern Munich's Michael Olise contributed 22 goals and 31 assists in 52 games and leads the World Cup with five assists, but Spain ended his run in the semi-finals. The race therefore narrows to the two finalists in New York. At 39, Messi is pursuing a record-extending ninth award.
With eight goals and four assists, Messi narrowly leads the Golden Boot race and could become the first player to captain a nation to back-to-back World Cup titles. Opposing him is Lamine Yamal, who finished second for the award in 2025. The 19-year-old registered 24 goals and 18 assists for Barcelona last season, but a Champions League quarter-final exit means Spain probably must win the World Cup for him to take the top prize.
While Yamal has managed just one goal in seven games at this tournament, victory on Sunday would swing the vote in his favour. Declan Rice, key to Arsenal's Premier League triumph, is expected to feature in the top ten. Yet for the major honours, the outcome rests entirely on whether Messi or Yamal lifts the trophy this weekend.
