UK eyes European Nato pivot as Trump demands higher defence spending

Keir Starmer travels to the Nato summit in Ankara on Tuesday in what is expected to be his final international trip as prime minister. He will join other leaders in attempting to "build a stronger and more European Nato" in response to sustained pressure from the US president to drastically increase military expenditure.

Donald Trump is expected to use the gathering to "take stock" of expanding defence capabilities while maintaining pressure on allies to hit a 5% GDP spending target. The US ambassador to Nato has already criticised members, arguing that "some allies are doing more than others". The UK currently ranks as the third-largest real terms contributor to the alliance, behind only the US and Germany, but sits 14th out of 32 countries when measured as a percentage of GDP.

“We reject these claims. The UK has always met its Nato spending commitments and remains one of the top defence centres in the alliance,” the prime minister’s official spokesperson told reporters. Despite Whitehall fears that Starmer could be sidelined in favour of bilateral talks with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the spokesperson said he did not expect a "dressing down" from the US president.

The economic implications of this spending pressure are immediate. Downing Street insists the UK "will not waver" from its commitments, with spending set to reach 2.7% of GDP by 2027-28, but there is no firm commitment to a 3% interim benchmark. With less than two weeks left in office, Starmer has been accused of leaving his successor, Andy Burnham, a £5bn funding gap in the defence investment plan.

Bridging that gap will be an early economic test for the incoming administration, particularly if Trump succeeds in locking allies into a 3.5% GDP target by 2035. To demonstrate that spending pledges will translate into tangible action, UK officials plan to announce a string of joint defence industry projects with European partners at the summit, emphasising "fairer burden sharing".

This push for a more autonomous European defence pillar is driven by escalating security risks. Russian military vessels threatening UK waters have surged by 30% over the past two years, and Nato has scrambled fighter jets over 700 times to intercept approaching Russian aircraft. "In a new era of threat," the prime minister’s spokesperson said, the UK remains focused on an alliance "ready to support Ukraine and face the long-term threat posed by an increasingly reckless and dangerous Russia."